Rig Counts off Another 3%

Last week we made a prediction that energy exploration rig counts in North America would drop around 3% weekly for 8 weeks–in likely our best and last correct prediction, rig counts fell by 3% last week.

Baker Hughes has reported that active rigs in the U.S. fell by 29 last week and by 48 in Canada.  Total active rigs are now at 2021 in North America.

Our thoughts remain that rig counts will have an average drop of around 3% weekly.  Big Bakken drillers Continental and Oasis have already announced large rig cutbacks, and none of these have yet happened–the Bakken was flat week on week.  The Permian in Texas lost 12 rigs on the week.

Here are our wild guesses from last week and some further thoughts on crude production.

Here is the most recent data from Baker Hughes.